SUPASUNDAE was suitably super for members of VG Tips on Saturday. My each way NAP was tipped when priced 25/1 (with Ladbrokes) and 22/1 (William Hill) on Friday night.
An extraordinarily generous price that I, along with others who have studied race form and the betting market for decades, noticed and grabbed. He was well backed on the day as the SP price when he came past the post in first place was a mere 8/1.
So often Supasundae has to make the running. But in the Irish Champion Hurdle over two miles at Leopardstown on Saturday, jockey Robbie Power simply tracked the mighty Faugheen. The last named tired late on and Supasundae cruised past to land a monster bet for my loyal, lovely subscribers.
Trainer Jessica Harrington has confirmed that the next race for Supasundae will be the very competitive looking Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival on March 15th.
She said: “Yesterday he got the run of the race, stalking Faugheen. At Christmas he had to make the running and got pounced on by Apple’s Jade. I know he stays the three miles and if the ground is drier at Cheltenham than it was at Leopardstown on Saturday, he’ll like it even better. I’m very happy for him to go there over three miles.”
After I had sent my tips out to members on Friday night, I noticed a tweet from Brendan Duke, a man who knows his Irish racing inside out. He said: “Know it doesn’t take much imagination to put up each way… but 25/1 Supasundae! The win part looks big to me. The place part enormous!”
Bookies do not get the prices wrong anything like as often as they used to in decades past. They are meaner They are, to quote one former long serving William Hill employee Graham Sharpe, “more cautious” these days. I remember Graham Sharpe also saying to me: “Punters should look for when the odds are potentially in their favour, not ours.”
But once in a while those who price up the initial betting market for races get it wrong, as Supasundae proved. As for the race itself, do not write off Faugheen. You’d be crackers to do that. Coming back after a disappointing previous run when pulling up at Leopardstown just after Christmas, Faugheen needed that race on Saturday and will be fitter if turning up at Cheltenham. If he takes up a place in the Stayers’ he could well exact revenge on Supasundae. The ante-post betting market now has Supasundae as the 4/1 favourite for that race, while Faugheen is as big as 16/1. Faugheen has raced over three miles once in the past and won that day. With bookies offering Non Runner, No Bet terms for races at the Cheltenham Festival, I’m tempted to take that 16/1 now, on each way terms. He is also entered in the Champion Hurdle (current best price, 8/1).
The Stayers’ Hurdle at the Festival could be a cracker. We must wait and see which horses make the final line up. At the moment you have contenders such as Apple’s Jade (as big as 10/1 with one bookie and as small as 3/1 elsewhere), Unowhatimeanharry (too early to right him off) at 14/1, Yanworth and L’Ami Serge at 12/1 and so on. It will be a while yet before we know the final declarations for that race.
Spotting when a price is too big to ignore is what I try to do week in, week out. Such careful and patient attention to detail paid off handsomely with Supasundae.
I was pleased to receive messages from happy members of VG Tips. Click here to join them in time for the glory that is the Cheltenham Festival in March and the Grand National in April – when I will try to predict the winner at Aintree for the third consecutive year.
Here are some of the messages I have received from members of VG Tips, on Sunday, about Supasundae:-
Mel e-mailed me to say: “Vern, magnificent tip with our 25 to 1 winner, Supasundae. I can honestly say in that race I wouldn’t have backed the horse with counterfeit money. You obviously spotted it would run a big race and I was cheering him home. Well done. Keep those winners coming.”
Michael tweeted me: “Great work, Vernon.”
Brian messaged me to say: “BOOM 💥💥💥💥 SUPASUNDAE 25/1 – Get In There. Super Tip.”