Statts 2013

Statts 2013

Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable. Mark Twain

 VG TIPS Stattoman (@VGTIPSport on twitter) takes a look at the Profit and Loss and the Return on Investment for  2013

I had originally intended to write a piece using only the profit and loss for the year, but a number of members have asked what the ROI (Return on Investment) figures are, so bowing to demand, these have been included as well. Also, a number of members have recently enquired about what the returns would be if the advised each way selections had been bet as win only. Alas those figures are not available for 2013 as I don’t have the time or eyesight to trawl through over 2.000 selections. But, for 2014 I’m including in the spread sheet, a column to record them.

To view any of the graphs in a larger size  click on them, but don’t forget to hit the back button to return to the article.

Profit and Loss & Return on Investment 2013 

Betting ROI 2013

Fact 1. Profit £1,903.74 at £10 per selected bet. £1,747.69 on single bets, and £156.05 on the occasional double, treble etc.

Fact 2. ROI 8.44%. 

Fact 3. Highest returning ROI/Profit advised bet selections range 7/1+

 A Tale of Two Halves

ROI BETTING 2013

From the above it is obvious to see the first six months produced much better returns than the July to December period, something that I believe Vernon will be writing about in a separate post.

I like the Mark Twain quote about statistics being pliable, you only have to listen to opposing politicians who draw totally different conclusions from the same set of figures, or interpreting a horses chances using previous race stats, it can be all about opinions.

The bottom line is if you had a £10 wager on every betting selection, you would have made £1,903.74 profit, less £10 per month/£100 pa membership, so a clear profit of £1,783.74/£1,803.74.

If you are in it for the long term that is a decent tax free profit for the year. A great first six months, and a poor last six months in comparison. But as the warnings in the financial adverts say ‘your investment may go up as well as down!’ is also true in betting on horse racing, or anything else for that matter, unfortunately we can not expect every bet to be a winning one.

With just the one year of figures to work with (Vernon has been doing this since 1998 but never had time to keep stats, as he will explain in forthcoming newsletter), it is difficult if not impossible to draw any solid conclusions as the two  halves of the year largely contradict each other. So, after some mulling over I’m of an opinion, but not a strong one, that the standard of racing was higher in the predominantly National Hunt peak period, namely the lead up to the Cheltenham Festival through to Aintree Grand National meeting – roughly equating to January to April, 2/3 of the first six months. The flat season for me, was frankly flat – the standard seemed to have slipped below that of the last few years, and the summer National Hunt scene and the first part of the ‘real’ season is usually a bit unpredictable, but that is my opinion. Opinions again.

 

2013 by Month and Odds

ANNUAL P&L BREAKDOWN 2013

Odds On Selections

With Stattoman’s hat on, after reviewing the first six months results of 2013, I suggested to Vernon that it was hardly worthwhile putting up odds on selections as the ROI was only 1.67%, and he told me a number of members actually liked betting on them, and he would continue selecting them, well he was right to do so as the ROI for the last six months was 14.53%, not a great deal in £ profit using my standard £10 per advised bet, but I would think that members who like to punt on them, they may well be putting a considerable amount more than £ 10 on.

 

Evens to 4/1

The only selection range that made an overall loss over the year of ROI -1.17% or -£126.15, albeit the last six months produced a plus 2.66% return. On dissecting this range further reveals the selections priced at 2/1 to 11/4 actually made a profit of £180.01. So does a punter then avoid evens – 15/8 and 3/1 – 4/1, and only bet on the 2/1 – 11/4 selections? I don’t have an answer. My feeling is from entering the results after the day’s racing, is bets in this range suffered disproportionately from what we all hate when we place win bets, namely ‘Seconditis’. Again I didn’t record where the horses were placed, but do remember often muttering to myself, ‘bloody hell another second’. We move on.

 

9/2 – 13/2 & 7/1+

I’ve linked the two ranges together as the returns from them are not far apart, with the latter being more each way orientated. Both ranges produced most of the annual profit, but as mentioned previously in the first half of the year.

Conclusion

With just the one year to look at it all depends on whether you view the short or long term, cherry pick selections or back them all. If you take the long term view then we’ll have to wait and see what happens in the first six months of this year when we can at least compare the results from 2013 and 2014. If you cherry pick selections, say for instance the odds on shots, then in both short and long term through 2013 you would’ve have seen a profit, while the opposite is true if you like to back the bigger priced selections. One of VG TIPS members has his own successful cherry picking method – 15/8 or greater and in the first two of  the Racing Post betting forecast.

Personally I’ll continue to back all the 7/1+ selections, often dutched with my own selection, and I’ll rarely play in anything under 9/2. I don’t back horses in sellers, claimers, rarely in maidens, unless there’s a ‘top’ yard with an entry at double figure odds (see Vernon’s interview with Richard Hughes here), and rarely in bumpers as for me they are too risky a proposition. Which takes me onto the top three money makers for members in 2013. It was only after compiling the top three that I realised they all ran in the first three months of 2013, and they were all BUMPERS.

 

Top Three Most Profitable Betting Selections

 

28/1 winning selection AnterosAnteros 28/1 8th January 2013, Chepstow

Watch the race here. You will need to be logged into ATR to access it.

 

 

Bodega 25/1 winning bet selection for membersBodega 25/1 – 12th February 2013, Lingfield

Watch the race here. You will need to be logged into ATR to access it.

 

 

Briar Hill winning 25/1 bet at Cheltenham Festival for membersBriar Hill 25/1 – 13th March 2013, Cheltenham

Watch the race here. You will need to be logged into RUK/Sky Bet to access it.

 

 

I plan to start publishing quarterly reports, so look out in early April for the next one. 

Good Luck.

Stattoman @VGTIPSport

 

    January Newsletter

0 Comments

Leave a reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

FREE EBOOK:

THE ART OF

PROFITABLE PUNTING

A Manual for Better Betting

Download Vernon Grant's free ebook and learn to:

  • Bet less.
  • Win more.
  • And make a profit.

Enter your text here...

x
Malcare WordPress Security