One of the questions from a member that I have addressed in a video diary that will be with you shortly is, “should we worry if the price on a selection drifts big time in the betting market?”
The questioner was talking about the best winner on Saturday, Delta Forty. I selected that one at odds of 5-2 on Friday night. On Saturday I watched the bookies market in the run up to the race and I first saw the price drift to 10-3, then 7-2 and all the way out to 5-1.
In general I would say there is no need to worry. True, once in a while it can mean that connections of the horse are at the course and are busy spreading doom and gloom about the chances for their horse (I am NOT saying this happened last Saturday). But it can happen. That way those connections can get ever better returns should, as the really expect to happen, their horse wins.
Or a drift in the market can mean another horse in the field is being heavily backed.
But the one individual at the course who doe snot know the price has drifted is the horse. He or she cannot look at the odds, see their price has got bigger and think “oh no! I can’t win now, I’m out to 5-1.”
Delta Forty was my tip to win for the reasons explained here. Namely that the horse had finished second on debut behind a horse that went on to win a much higher class of race next time out. That’s why I tipped it. That’s why it won.
The extra value in the betting market was – like our football win on Sunderland at odds of 7-2 – a gift from the bookies