Saturday saw us net some winners and profit.
The winners were:- Seussical at 7/1, War Command at a value price of 5/4 and 11/10 for those who took the early price and Killala Quay also won, at Evens.
Each way profitable punts included Storm Survivor at 14/1 and Hallelujah at 9/1.
There was quite a bit of rainfall on Sunday, including at southern racecourses. So I will be interested to see what the going is at all the courses mentioned below.
Never underestimate how important ground conditions can be. More important than the draw in most cases.
As was seen on Sunday, many horses do not take kindly to racing in a bog!
I fancy a few on Monday. And those are not words I have used too often this past flat season.
Analysis & Selections
A nursery for which, ideally, we would know the precise ground conditions before betting.
Killing Time has yet to win a race after four attempts, but came close when second on last run, beaten by just a neck on the all weather surface at Kempton. Three previous outings on turf, on Good ground, saw the gelding come third and fourth. I like the trainer and jockey today.
Howz the Family won for Tom Dascombe when last seen in June, though the subsequent form of the second and third that day have not bolstered that win.
If the ground is on the soft side at Windsor, then the Richard Fahey trained Longton will be happy. A winner on Good to Soft when last seen on a course in August, the second that day has gone on to come third in a higher class of race.
For me, Longton has the edge if the word Soft is in the going description. Killing Time would be the favoured pick if not.
But, at the time of writing, and in a field of 14, I am content to play safe and be on both each way.
Each Way Killing Time 11/2. Each Way Longton 15/2
I wouldn’t be on at less than 4/1 personally, but I do like the profile of the Gerard Butler trained Rainbow Beauty. Prior to finishing a close up third at Leicester last month, jockey James Doyle was in the saddle when the filly won a race of this class at Sandown.
She will have to be at her best. The opposition looks decent.
Win Rainbow Beauty 9/2
Hawdyerwheesht has won for us in the past and I fancy him in this race at an each way price. Unlike some in this race, the gelding has experience at this level (class 3). Beaten only a length and a half at this course late last month, the winner that day was the very useful Alcaeus. Just behind the selection that day, in fourth, was Scatter Dice. And we saw how impressive Scatter Dice was on Saturday when winning the class 2 Cesarewitch Handicap with something to spare.
Discay is among the obvious dangers, but I fancy the potential value the selection offers.
Each Way (Nap) Hawdyerwheesht 12/1
Here I go again. Is Vernon going off on one? I hear some ask.
So, yes, old rivals Opt Out and Tom Sawyer are the front two in the betting market, and rightly so. Of the two I favour Opt Out.
But I take both on with another former winner of ours. Algar Lad won for us at odds of 20/1 on debut, but has not won since. However, this race is a drop down in class from the hot class 2 handicap he raced in at Ayr last month. This class 5 race is even slightly lower class than the class 4 handicap he won at that course in August.
So I take a chance, at current odds of 7/1, on Algar Lad.
Each Way (Nap) Algar Lad 7/1
Mark Johnston has had a good season and a good day last Saturday. He trains two of the seven in this field and stable jockey Joe Fanning plumps for Commissioned. Winner of a much lower class race last time out, but a victory by a whopping 11 lengths. This race will be much harder to win, but this could be a star of the Johnston camp next season.
Win Commissioned 2/1
In days of old Ryan Moore riding for Sir Michael Stoute meant lots of winners. And lots of profit for me. The pair don’t combine as often these days but, when they do, I sit up and take notice.
In this race they deliver Centred, which looks like it could be one of Stoute’s most promising fillies. The grey has won two of her last three races, finishing runner up in the other outing. She races over a further distance here and is not a sure thing but, at 7/2 or 3/1, looks a bet to me. She has yet to race on turf with the word soft in the description and I for one will be checking the official going at all meetings on Monday. We saw lots of rainfall on Sunday.
Win (Nap) Centred 7/2
VG Tips Best Bets
Hawdyerwheesht (each way) – Musselburgh 3.45
Algar Lad (each way) – Musselburgh 4.20
Centred – Salisbury 5.30
That is all for the racing on Monday.
Any midweek football tips will be with you later on Monday.
Good luck with your own bets.