How to be a profitable punter, part 2. Certainties. Probabilities. Value.

How to be a profitable punter, part 2. Certainties. Probabilities. Value.

There is no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to betting. If you read that a bet is “a certainty” think again. Only death and taxes are certainties.

I advise you to deal in probabilities, not alleged certainties. When considering a sports bet ask yourself: “Is this horse/football team/player – on the balance of probabilities – more likely than not to return me profit?”

Is the price right?

If you were going to break it down, what percentage chance do you think you have of making some money on that bet?

Then ask yourself “Does the price on offer in the betting market represent potential value?” Every punter has their right price for any bet and punters will differ when it comes to whether or not they believe a particular punt represents value.

I offer my personal opinion to members of VG Tips. I might believe a horse is not value to win a race at odds of 5/2. You may believe it is. I am content to let a horse win a race when not carrying my money if I believe the price is shorter than it should be.

Not every bet I tip can offer the value of, for example, the 5/1 or 9/2 winner of the Irish Oaks, Star Catcher.

For my part, I rarely back any horse at an odds on price. Unless, that is, I believe the price should be even shorter than it already is. Odds such as 4/5, 8/15 and 1/2 can represent value if you believe the horse should be much shorter in the betting market.

Ask yourself how you would be pricing a certain race or football match. Pretend you’re a bookie. Would you price a selection bigger or shorter?

punters cheering at the curragh

The new football season begins soon. I’ll be offering my annual pre-season selections for promotion, relegation, titles and cup winners. I’ll be asking myself if a team is attractively priced and worth tipping to subscribers to my long established and popular service. Throughout the long domestic season, and for Euro 2020 next summer, I’ll be doing the home work so that you don’t have to.

There will be teams worth backing to win a match, but not if the price is wrong. We have learned in recent football seasons to expect the unexpected in between August and December.

Can you kick it?

Betting on football is harder to predict than used to be the case. But we did well last season, as you can read via this link, both with the pre-season predictions – the ultimate test of the patience of a punter – and we returned nice profit on individual events in the second half of last season. By then the outcome of football matches become more predictable and we know the identity of the more regular goalscorers.

One thing is certain. For the rest of the summer flat racing season, for the next jumps season and for football between August of 2019 and July of 2020, I will be here. Studying form, researching those probabilities, and offering detailed analysis and betting tips to members old and new.

You are welcome to join VG Tips in a way that suits you. Click on this link to do so.

If you first need to know more about me and the service I have long offered, click here.

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