Spotting potential value in the betting market has been something I have been doing for decades. Trying to see when the bookies may have got a price wrong. It happens less often these days than it used to, and especially so in the Premier League, but those who price up football matches and horse racing meetings can still get it wrong from time to time.
For the weekend football tips of October 23rd, I alerted subscribers to VG Tips that, very unusually for them, Paddy Power/Betfair had dropped a ricket, pricing BEN CHILWELL at odds of 10/1 to score anytime for Chelsea in what was sure to be a comfortable home victory against Norwich City. I told members that other bookies had the same bet priced at 4/1 or 5/1. What were they thinking of at Paddy Power towers?
Chilwell had scored in Chelsea’s previous two league games and against better opponents than Norwich. I also suggested my followers may wish to revert to the trusty ‘Chelsea to Win to Nil’ bet that has returned so often for punters since the arrival of Thomas Tuchel as manager. I made that a NAP at odds of 3/4.
Predictably, the Blues romped into an early lead, eventually winning the game 7-0. Ben Chilwell scored their fourth goal in the 57th minute and I immediately collected my winnings, as I know several VG Tips subscribers did, including new lifetime member Stephen. Well done him.
Another early price the bookies called wrong for Saturday was the 5/1 on offer for I LIKE TO MOVE IT winning a four runner race at Cheltenham. I suggested to those who receive my detailed and well researched analysis and betting tips that they should consider a bet on the Sam Twiston-Davies ridden gelding, trained by his father Nigel. Horse and jockey went on to win a Class 2 handicap hurdle by three and a quarter lengths, leaving 11/8 co-favourites Tritonic and Stepney Causeway trailing behind.
In a four runner race, there is no way I Like To Movie It should have been available at odds of 5/1 and I would argue that even the SP of 10/3 represented value for what was a comfortable and impressive victory.