Sometimes betting on football is about picking the right moment to place a bet. When the odds on an outcome are, on the balance of probabilities, more in the favour of you the punter, and not the bookie.
That was the case one week ago after Porto had beaten an injury hit Bayern Munich 3-1 at home in the first leg of their Champions League quarter final.
While many thought that was the end of the campaign for Bayern Munich, I did not see it that way. The next day I noticed that bookies had Bayern Munich as big as 4/1 to win the Champions League final. I could not resist such potential generosity.
4/1 was too big a price to ignore and, of course, they are still some distance from lifting the Champions League trophy. They will have to be a very good team to win the final and it will likely be a Spanish side. I knew that when I placed that bet. But now, following Bayern’s 6-1 victory over Porto in the second leg, the German side are as short as 13/8 to win the Champions League.
Timing. That’s what I’m on about. Know when to hold them. Know when to fold them.
I did bet on Bayern to qualify for the semi-finals prior to their drubbing of Porto last night. Yes, to come back from such a defecit in a second leg is rare. Only 7 teams had previously achieved that in a Champions League tie. But Bayern Munich were at home in front of their impassioned crowd, they had a chance of having at least one or two players back from injury and have quality oozing through their squad. The best price for them to do so was 21/20 with Boylesports and I knew I would be collecting by half time.
Barcelona swept PSG aside, winning the second leg 2-0 at home. The first goal was sublime. Andres Iniesta is one of the best midfield players of my lifetime and he created the first goal for Neymar. Iniesta picked up the ball in his own half, dribbled past a few opponents and delivered Neymar an exquisite pass.
I do hope the final is one between Barcelona and Bayern Munich, managed by the former Barcelona boss, Pep Guardiola.
Bookies have that final priced at 9/4. A Real Madrid v Barcelona final is as big as 5/1 (I’m tempted). Real Madrid v Bayern Munich is on offer at the same price. While a Barcelona v Atletico Madrid final is, as at 1pm UK time on Wednesday, available at odds of 14/1.
Tuesday’s football also saw my second consecutive football NAP bet pay off. Rochdale beat Leyton Orient at odds of 6/4. Which reminds me of another well timed bet that looks set to pay out members of VG TIPS very nicely indeed.
At the start of the season I told members I was backing Leyton Orient to be relegated from League 1 at odds of 28/1. “You’re mad” was one of the more polite comments sent my way. After all, last May Orient were just 45 minutes away from being promoted to the Championship.
That price was, to my amazement, still available last October and I reminded members of the bet I fancied. My money was down last August at that price of 28/1. Now, having lost the game in hand they had on their relegation rivals, Orient look doomed. Especially as they have to play two clubs who are in the play off places.