The bookies took a bashing this magic Monday, January 7th. My members were offered 7 selections across two race meetings. 6 of the 7 horses tipped won. The other came second.
It was a day when bookies ran for cover. Many on course bookies stayed at home as they feared it would be a day when favourites won. And they were right. At Taunton racecourse all seven races were won by the market favourite. A nightmare outcome for the bookmaker.
I built my reputation as a punter and tipster by finding big price winners. Outsiders at a good each way price. Personally, I love nothing more than an each way winner.
In the past year I have been accused a couple of times of veering more and more towards favourites these days. But the fact is I don’t care whether my selection is an outsider or a favourite. I care only if the odds are more than likely to be in the favour of the punter, and not the bookie.
I would much rather tip a winner at Evens than a loser at 25-1. The route to profitable punting is not achieved by constantly and only backing big priced outsiders in the hope a few pay off during the course of twelve months.
It is about deciding if a particular bet offers value. By that I mean is the price on offer more generous than you believe it should be. Even when the price is an odds on one.
When is the price of 5-6 value?
Well, in my opinion, that was the case today when the Paul Nicholls trained Safe Investment won comfortably at Taunton. That was a good price. I had no doubt that was the most likely winner.
Dark Lane was a great winner for us today, especially if you took the early price advised to members. For a long time you could get odds of 10-3 against Dark Lane. So put three pounds on and win a tenner. Put £30 pounds on to win and net £100.
At 13-8 when selected the dropping in grade Bennys Mist was a clear winner of a gruelling, long distance race.
And an old favourite of mine, and my long term followers, LastKingofSctoland netted a 13th career win at Kempton Park. Available at 9-4 when selected the night before racing, the favourite was taken out of the race beforehand.
The price on my selection in the few minutes before the off fluctuated between 4-6 and 6-4. I could not believe the latter and took that price before it quickly vanished. LastKingofScotland won easily.
In my selections message the night before racing I did say we had a good chance of winning all 4 races in which I made selections at Taunton. And that indeed was the case. For those members betting on all four to win, that accumulator paid off at odds of 12-1.
So 6 winners out of 7 tips on the day. I’m happy with that, as were many members.
But, as my teacher used to say… can do better!
The winners Monday, at the odds available when members were advised or the SP price (whichever the greater), were as follows:-