Sometimes the betting market gets it wrong. Not often enough these days, for sure. But it still happens. And I spend my time trying to spot when it does. For myself, and for the lovely and loyal members of VG TIPS.
On Saturday afternoon, while studying the card for Navan the following day, I kept wondering why Three Stars was priced as big as 12/1 to win a Grade 3 Novice Hurdle. I had to do a double take. And then have another look. Surely 12/1 was too big and insulting to the gelding.
Tycoon Prince was a short priced favourite but I felt that was wrong. Here is what I told members in their selections e-mail.
“The first price for the favourite to win is only 4/5 but Tycoon Prince may still be a bet for some of you (though not for me personally unless that price drifts to an odds against one). So instead I’ll have an each way bet on Three Stars at odds of 12/1 currently. Not out of the first two in his last four outings, he was second in this grade last time out, beaten only by an unbeaten (in four races) Willie Mullins horse that has a Class 1 race entry for next week.”
Three Stars had let me down previously, but that was only due to being up against the aforementioned Willie Mullins star in the making called Bachasson. And I love horses that are reliable, never finishing out of the frame.
Tycoon Prince, meanwhile, had won well the previous time, but that was only a maiden hurdle. That win did not warrant an odds on price. The 12/1 for Three Stars was too big to ignore. He duly won by over two lengths and finished almost 7 lengths in front of Tycoon Prince.
I love spotting when the market has got it wrong and, on Sunday, VG TIPS members who backed Three Stars – Each Way or to Win – benefited from that research.